Don't be shocked if Bibi's tenure as PM ends before it begins. Though he has a tenuous 65 seats on the right to successfully form a coalition, Bibi has no interest in governing from the right, and is desperately trying to woo a leftwing government coalition of Labor and Kadima instead.
However, he is coming up empty because they will only sit in his government if he publicly recognizes the rights of the Palestinians to have a state of their own west of the Jordan River, and will negotiate the Golan and Jerusalem as part of the peace process with the arabs. Doing so, of course, would cost Bibi all of his partners to the right, defy his own paty platform, and make his leadership subservient to Livni.
Of course, deep down, we all know Bibi would give away his own mother to the arabs in exchange for power, money and fame, so he is stuck in the awkward position of either holding onto a rightwing ideology that makes him unpopular with world leaders, or a leftwing ideology that makes him the darling of the EU and Obama but a pariah within his own party, and on the verge of being overthrown by a vote of no-confidence.
Ultimately, the problem Bibi faces is Bibi. If he were a true Likudnik leader of the hardline variety he could stay in office for his entire term without worry, but being scorned by European and American dignitaries is something he could never allow, as their acceptance of him on the world stage is the main reason he wants to be in power in the first place.
What to do, Bibi...you are a corrupt, dishonest, ambitious man in a weak government that forces you to either be ideological or out of power, neither of which are options you have the stomach to accept. In the end, I suppose, you will worm back to the right to try and get your foot in the door as PM, but will lose your grip on the coalition within 6 months of taking office as your inevitable attempts to swing too far to the left lead to the collapse of your government.
New elections coming before 2009 is out...mark my words.
-MZ
Monday, February 23, 2009
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i am marking your words.
ReplyDeleteI like that my words have been marked, Nanc...seems to give them more importance.
ReplyDeletevery nice analysis, sadly probably on the money.
ReplyDeleteSomething you will find among the national camp is almost no one really likes Bibi, it is very rare to find a nationalist who adores Bibi and his policies. But much of the national camp believes only Bibi can win national elections, it's foolish but true.
Thanks, KL. The good news about Bibi is that once his government collapses he'll be ousted from party leadership. The void will likely be filled by a hard liner, maybe not Feiglin, but a hardliner who would be warmer to having Feiglin's Jewish Leadership movement represented in his party.
ReplyDeleteThe next Likud will be much more ideologically nationalist than the slimy Bibi Likud that dreams of being accepted by the land compromising left.
now, mark my words - i put up a recipe at oh boo moments i'm sure you'll just love...::sarc::...HA!
ReplyDeletemore palistinian driver rampage! justice done on sight.
ReplyDelete